In rankings of geopolitical hotspots the Middle East always features prominently. But whereas in the past decades Israel usually took center stage, these days the situation is much more complicated and, in our view, more dangerous.

It all started with the ill-advised overthrow of the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq by U.S. forces, searching for weapons of mass destruction that were never found. American forces, adamant that Hussein’s Ba’ath party should not have a role in the future of Iraq, installed and backed the divisive (and corrupt) Shia-led regime of Nouri al-Maliki instead. Maliki alienated the country’s Sunni minority, making swathes of Iraq a breeding ground for Sunni jihadi groups (eventually resulting in the rise of Islamic State). Meanwhile the Kurds in the north of the country took advantage of the situation and effectively established their own state, especially after U.S. troops were in a hurry to return home, leaving a power vacuum behind. Elsewhere in the region there were popular uprisings (referred to as “ Arab Spring”) but America’s new president, Barack Obama, did not have a consistent plan, for example first supporting the removal of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt but then standing by when a legitimately elected (though flawed) government consisting of Muslim Brotherhood was brushed aside by the Egyptian army. In Libya, Western forces were happy to carpet bomb Muammar Gaddafi’s troops but left the country to its own (in a tribal mess, that is) after Gaddafi was killed.

But the two main game changers were Iran and Syria. Eager to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) agreed that Iran would eliminate its stockpile of enriched uranium and reduce the number of gas centrifuges in exchange for lifting crippling economic sanctions. The deal drew a lot of criticism of some Arab nations, most specifically Saudi Arabia, a staunch partner of the U.S. (Israel also criticized the deal). Saudi Arabia is afraid that the deal with Iran will upset the balance of power in the region, giving Shia Iran the upper hand. The more so because Iran’s meddling in the region was not addressed in any form; Iran continues to export its state-sponsored terrorism in the region (Lebanon, Syria, Yemen) unpunished.

Then, there is the case of Syria. Following Arab Spring protests starting in 2011, nationwide protests against the government of Bashar al-Assad erupted. Assad responded with a violent crackdown and could count on the support of Iran and also Russia. Assad’s use of chemical weapons against civilians received a wobbly response from the U.S. (a “red line” was breached but the Obama administration failed to act), enabling Russia to jump into the vacuum. The Russians devised a smart plan to address the chemical weapons issue, outflanking America’s Secretary of State John Kerry, whilst at the same time providing air force defense for Assad’s troops (under the pretext that it is fighting Islamic State).

Meanwhile, the little that the U.S. has done in Syria is delivering weapons to opposition groups, notably to Syrian Kurds, to fight both Assad and Islamic State, by now also present in Syria. But supporting the Kurds irked Turkey (a NATO member), who is loath to see a Kurdish state on the south of its border. In any case, president Erdogan of Turkey already had his own reasons to bash the Kurds as he used this to win parliamentary elections so he can consolidate power in the presidency (at a tremendous cost though; parts of the south-east of Turkey resemble a war zone). The Saudis, who are disappointed in America’s inaction against Assad in Syria, are now considering supplying Sunni rebel groups (hopefully not Islamic State though) with anti-aircraft missiles in order to stop Assad’s comeback. This is a risky strategy as this could pit the U.S. allies (Saudi Arabia and Turkey) against Russia. Turkey already shot down a Russian jet in November of last year, claiming the jet illegally invaded its airspace for 17 seconds, and is warning Russia not to assist the Syrian Kurds following a car bomb attack by the latter in Ankara.

In the meantime, the chaos and atrocities in Syria have resulted in a continuous stream of refugees, destabilizing and dividing the European Union (much to Russia’s delight). It is not easy to find a way out of this complicated situation. Recent “peace” talks between Messrs. Kerry and Lavrov over Syria probably will not lead to lasting peace (and removal of Mr. Assad). The best we can hope for is that they can avert an escalating direct conflict between Russia and Turkey.