The presidential elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo produced a Brexit-like upset. The outgoing president, Joseph Kabila, reluctant to be released from power after his reign of 18 years, anointed Emmanuel Shadary as his successor. In a country where elections are neither free nor fair (two of Kabila’s fiercest rivals, Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba, were banned from running), Mr. Shadary’s chances to win rigged elections were deemed a near-certainty. The main opposition came from Martin Fayulu, a former oil executive promising a clean(er) government, who was leading in pre-election polls. However, while two dogs were fighting for a bone, a third ran away with it. Félix Tshisekedi was, probably to his own surprise, declared the remarkable winner of the elections.

Lucky Félix…

Of course, Mr. Tshisekedi (also known as “Fatshi”) did not really win at the ballot box, as the Catholic church needlessly pointed out. The election commission took 10 days to arrive at a decision (confirmed by the constitutional court on January 20th) but failed to provide any details about the vote. Given that voters deemed Shadary, a highly unpopular former interior minister, too repulsive (quite a feat in Congo, by the way), Mr. Kabila must have switched sides at the eleventh hour and may have struck a deal with Mr. Tshisekedi to protect his legacy (mostly stowed away in foreign bank accounts). As Mr. Fayulu is backed by Kabila’s adversaries, Messrs. Katumbi and Bemba, a similar deal between Kabila and Fayulu was not in the offing. After initial hesitation, both the SADC and the African Union congratulated Mr. Tshisekedi with his first-time lucky victory. He was inaugurated on January 24th, stating that he wants to build a “reconciled Congo”. Unfortunately, he had to cut short his inaugural address after he fainted: hopefully no precursor of things to come…

For the Congolese the most important result is that, after overstaying by 2 years, Joseph Kabila is dethroned. Yes, he rigged the elections but in the end only to help an opponent, not his first choice, in the saddle. Whether Fayulu or Tshisekedi is the rightful successor is therefore probably less important to Congolese voters, as evidenced by the lack of wide scale protests (at least, for now). Tshisekedi’s appeal draws from the fact that he is the son of a popular opposition leader, Étienne Tshisekedi, who challenged Mobutu (although, in a surreal Congolese twist, at times also served in his governments). Tshisekedi père also ran against Kabila in the 2011 elections. Fils Félix worked his way through the party his father founded in 1982, the UDPS, and became the party’s leader last year after his father passed away a year earlier. Although he might have cut some deal with Kabila, Tshisekedi seems an acceptable politician but with little experience of running a very complex country (or, actually, running anything) and without deep ties with the mighty military and police forces (its senior echelons having been appointed by Kabila’s regime). Actually, more or less the same can be said of Martin Fayulu, a former ExxonMobil executive. Pumping oil out of the ground is not necessarily an useful skill in politics, as his former boss, Rex Tillerson, painfully proved. Further, Fayulu enjoyed the backing of another rather questionable person, Jean-Pierre Bemba, who ran against Kabila in the elections of 2006. Mr. Bemba is a former warlord (dreaming of becoming the Che Guevara of the African bush) who miraculously escaped a prison sentence for war crimes committed in the Central African Republic by his MLC rebel group. An earlier conviction by the ICC in The Hague was overturned as it was not proved that Bemba controlled the group who perpetrated the atrocities. Bemba inherited ill-gotten money from his father (who was close to Mobutu; Jean-Pierre once was employed as assistant to the dictator) and enriched himself through shady business deals (allegedly, he also received gifts from the deceased Libyan strongman Gaddafi). Meanwhile, Mr. Bemba acquired a reputation as a playboy in Brussels’ nightlife. We think it is unlikely that Bemba would not expect favours from Fayulu once the latter would become president of Congo.

Will they have a happy future…?

The new president will face a monumental task. Economic data are hard to come by, but the UN reckons that gross national income per capita (in PPP terms) is a pitiful US$ 796 per annum, 40% lower than in 1990 (i.e. before the devastating war that led to the removal of Mobutu). For comparison, Ethiopia’s GNI per capita is US$ 1,719 but doesn’t have Congo’s vast mineral wealth. For a country the size of Western Europe with 77 million inhabitants, GDP is only equal to US$ 37 billion. Congo ranks 176th out of 189 countries and territories in the UN’s human development index. About two-thirds of the population lives below the poverty line, despite reasonable growth rates during 2010-2015, supported by higher commodity prices. Lack of infrastructure, especially transportation and power generation (only 15% of the population has access to electricity), is hindering growth, as is the poor quality of education (shortage of schools and qualified teachers: a big problem for a country where 45% of the population is under 15 years of age). Institutions, like the justice system, are very weak and simply do not work. The country consistently ranks in the bottom 10 countries for the World Bank’s governance indicators. Violence is ubiquitous in large parts of the country, mainly in the east. The UN believes there are 4.5 million internally displaced people because of this. In the northeast of the country, medics struggle to contain an outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus as various armed militia are roaming the area. Corruption is ingrained in the political system, not only within Kabila’s clique but across all political parties, including opposition.

Finally, as if the list is not yet daunting enough, Tshisekedi has to work with a legislature that is dominated by Kabila’s cronies (the Common Front for Congo has a majority in the National Assembly) and has to keep the army at bay with whom he does not have deep connections. And Congo’s largest trading partner, China, may experience slower growth. Félix will need a lot of wisdom and luck to get Congo on a prosperous growth path. Let’s sincerely hope he succeeds…