A small majority of the Turkish population voted to amend the constitution, thereby shifting power from parliament to the presidency. Effectively, they swapped democracy for near-autocracy. Going forward, the president will lead the government (as well as a political party, if he or she cares) and can rule by decree (although parliament still can override these decrees with a majority vote). The presidency will be subject to a two-term limit, each of 5 years, unless parliament calls for an early election in the second term (with 60% of the votes), in which case the president can run for a third term. Elections for the presidency and parliament will take place at the same time. The new constitution fully will come into force after elections in 2019.
The changes to the constitution were put to a vote in a referendum by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s current president, who believes that only he can steer Turkey to eternal prosperity. From the start it already was clear that Erdogan would win. Indeed, he claimed victory before all votes were counted, even though the margin of victory was small and irregularities were reported (for example, the OSCE condemned the decision of the electoral board to accept ballot papers that did not bear the official seal). U.S. president Donald Trump, an admirer of strongmen, called to congratulate Mr. Erdogan, apparently unaware that he actually read fake news on Erdogan’s victory.
The Sultan’s fan base, looking up to heaven…
The new constitution basically formalizes the current situation where Mr. Erdogan, using powers granted to him under a state of emergency after the failed coup in July of last year, already calls all the shots. He has jailed some of his political opponents, closed unfriendly media and fired thousands of judges, teachers, civil servants and people in the military and police to cleanse institutions from suspected followers of Fethullah Gülen, a former imam and political opponent of Erdogan. On the day following the referendum, the country’s security council extended the emergency rule for another 3 months. This, together with a promised re-introduction of the death penalty, should be sufficient to silence voices that question the outcome of the referendum.
Turkey’s Commander-in-Chief…
Erdogan’s power grab will increase tensions in a deeply divided nation with on one hand pious Muslims that wish to defend conservative Islamic values and on the other hand proponents of a secular system as envisioned by Atatürk. Erdogan deliberately polarized his country, striking a nationalistic tone, to get his way. We probably will see more of this in the run-up to the elections in 2019 (or whenever Erdogan believes is the right time to hold elections): once the genie is out of the bottle, it is difficult to put it back in. Turkey’s relationship with Europe, already tense in the best of times, is likely to deteriorate further as European leaders will find it ever more difficult to ignore Erdogan’s abuse of power. Erdogan’s Achilles heel is a weakening economy. Turkey’s economic ties with Europe, despite Erdogan’s flirts with Russia, are crucial, both from a trade and a financing perspective. Possibly the EU can use trade as a tool to keep Mr. Erdogan somewhat in check (EU accession by now being a distant dream), although we are sceptical that he will change his populist, divisive track…